If you can’t recall perfect blackjack basic strategy, use this 5-second dealer upcard rule: when the dealer shows 7 through Ace, you should usually hit; when the dealer shows 2 through 6, you should usually stand (or at least avoid “panic hits”). The logic is simple and fast: 2–6 are “bust cards” that make the dealer break more often, while 7–A are “made-hand cards” that help the dealer reach 17–21 more reliably. This rule won’t replace a full strategy chart, but it correctly pushes your decisions toward the side that reduces expected loss in the most common “I forgot the chart” moments.
Why the Dealer Upcard Dominates Your Decision
Blackjack is a conditional-probability game: your best action depends heavily on what the dealer is likely to finish with. The dealer’s upcard changes two things that matter immediately:
- Dealer bust frequency (how often you win without improving your hand)
- Dealer final-hand strength when they don’t bust (how often you must reach 18–21 to win)
In most rule sets, the dealer must hit until at least 17, so their play is fixed.
According to casinowhizz.com, Your edge comes from not donating money by taking unnecessary risk when the dealer is already “fragile” (2–6), and from not freezing when the dealer is likely to land a strong total (7–A).
A practical way to remember it in seconds:
- Dealer 2–6 = let the dealer make mistakes. Prioritize not busting.
- Dealer 7–A = you must compete. Prioritize improving totals that can’t win as-is.
The “Bust Cards” vs “Made-Hand Cards” in Real Numbers
A widely taught benchmark is that dealer busting is materially more likely when the upcard is 2–6 than when it is 7–Ace. Exact percentages vary by number of decks and whether the dealer hits soft 17 (H17) or stands on soft 17 (S17), but the pattern is stable:
- Upcard 2–6: bust risk is comparatively high; the dealer often needs multiple hits to reach 17+, increasing the chance of crossing 21.
- Upcard 7–A: bust risk drops; the dealer starts closer to a made total and needs fewer risky hits.
This difference is why “standing on marginal totals” becomes more correct against 2–6. If you hit 12–16 into a bust, you convert a situation where the dealer might have broken into a guaranteed loss.
A quick mental model that matches how basic strategy behaves:
- Against 2–6, your main job is to avoid busting with 12–16 unless you have a strong reason to hit (some of those reasons exist; we’ll define them below).
- Against 7–A, your main job is to avoid losing slowly by standing on totals that are statistically unlikely to beat the dealer’s average finish.
The Actual 5-Second Rule (and the Two Important Exceptions)
Step 1: Identify the dealer group in one glance
- Dealer shows 2–6: default to stand on any stiff hand you could easily bust (12–16).
- Dealer shows 7–Ace: default to hit stiff hands (12–16), because standing usually loses to dealer 17–21.
That alone covers the highest-frequency “hit-or-stand” stress points.
Step 2: Apply two exceptions that matter a lot
Exception A: Hard 11 or less — always hit.
You cannot bust with one card on 11 or less, so hitting is almost always correct and aligns with full basic strategy.
Exception B: Hard 17 or more — always stand.
A hard 17+ already beats many dealer finishes; hitting risks turning a winning/competitive total into an immediate bust.
If you only remember one compact rule-set under pressure, use this:
- 11 or less: Hit
- 12–16: Stand vs 2–6; Hit vs 7–A
- 17+: Stand
That’s the fast framework. Next we tighten it with the most meaningful edge-case: hard 12.
Hard 12 Is the Trap Hand: Here’s the Fast Fix
Hard 12 sits right on the boundary where the dealer’s bust rate matters, but your bust risk is also real (drawing any 10-value card busts you).
Use this quick rule:
- Hard 12 vs dealer 2–3: usually hit (dealer is less fragile than vs 4–6, and your total is weak).
- Hard 12 vs dealer 4–6: usually stand (dealer bust pressure is highest here).
- Hard 12 vs dealer 7–A: hit (standing tends to lose too often).
This is one place where “2–6 stand” is directionally right but not perfectly precise, so it’s worth memorizing the split: 12 stands strongest versus 4–6.
Using the Rule Correctly With Soft Hands (A,2 through A,7)
Soft hands (those with an Ace counted as 11) change the risk profile: you can often hit without busting because the Ace can “drop” from 11 to 1.
A fast soft-hand overlay that works with the upcard rule:
- Soft 17 (A,6) or less: usually hit (you’re behind most dealer outcomes, and you have low bust risk).
- Soft 18 (A,7):
– vs 2–6: usually stand (or double in full strategy in some cases)
– vs 7–A: usually hit (dealer finishes strong; improving matters)
- Soft 19+ (A,8 and higher): usually stand
The point: the dealer upcard still drives the decision, but soft totals give you more “safe hits,” so you should be less afraid of taking a card against strong dealer upcards.
Why This Rule Tracks Expected Value (Without Memorizing EV Tables)
Basic strategy is an expected-value optimization: it chooses the action with the least negative expectation (or highest positive expectation in rare favorable spots). The dealer upcard rule works as a shortcut because it approximates two competing EV forces:
- Your bust cost is immediate and absolute. If you bust, your result is locked at -1 unit (ignoring surrender/insurance side cases).
- Dealer busts are “free wins.” If you stand and the dealer busts, you win without improving.
Against 2–6, the incremental value of “not busting” is larger because the dealer gives you more free wins. Against 7–A, free wins are rarer, so standing on weak totals creates a slow leak: you lose more often to dealer 17–21.
A practical, data-driven way to internalize this: your decision threshold (the point at which “stand” becomes better than “hit”) shifts upward when dealer bust probability rises. That’s exactly what “2–6 stand more, 7–A hit more” captures.
Common Table Rules That Change the Threshold (and How to Adjust Fast)
Your best play is sensitive to a few rule toggles. You don’t need the full recalibration to use the 5-second rule, but you should know what moves the needle:
- H17 vs S17: If the dealer hits soft 17 (H17), the dealer improves slightly, and players generally need to be a bit more aggressive in close spots. Your fast rule still holds, but borderline stands become slightly weaker.
- Number of decks: More decks slightly favor the house and can nudge some marginal decisions, but the bust-card vs made-hand-card structure remains.
- Late surrender: If available, surrender is often the best “third option” in specific 15/16 vs strong upcards. If you ignore surrender, your hit/stand rule becomes more important because you’re forced to choose between two inferior options.
- 3:2 vs 6:5 blackjack payout: This doesn’t change hit/stand math directly, but it changes the overall house edge; misplays cost more in a worse-pay table.
Worked Examples You Can Reproduce at the Table
Example 1: You have 16 vs dealer 6
- Dealer upcard is 2–6 (bust card) → default stand.
- Reason: hitting 16 busts on any 6+ (a large portion of the deck). Standing keeps all dealer bust outcomes alive.
Example 2: You have 13 vs dealer 9
- Dealer upcard is 7–A (made-hand card) → default hit.
- Reason: standing on 13 versus 9 typically loses to dealer 18–20 finishes far more than it wins.
Example 3: You have hard 12 vs dealer 4
- Use the hard-12 fix: stand vs 4–6.
- Reason: dealer is most fragile; your bust risk on a hit is meaningful (10-value cards).
Example 4: You have soft 18 (A,7) vs dealer Ace
- Dealer upcard is made-hand card → lean hit with soft 18 vs strong upcards.
- Reason: you can improve to 19–21 with low bust risk; standing often loses.
The Bottom Line
In five seconds, classify the dealer upcard: 2–6 means the dealer is prone to bust, so stand more; 7–Ace means the dealer is likely to make a strong hand, so hit more. Lock in the two guardrails—always hit 11 or less, always stand hard 17+—and you’ll make most “forgot-the-chart” decisions in the right direction with minimal mental load.
